Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries
研究了1990年代私人资本再次大量流入中等收入国家的原因，发现国际利率变化是主要驱动因素，而债务减免和政策改革作用较小。利率上升可能使债务价格跌至资本流入难以为继的水平。
The outlook for economic development for an important group of middle-income countries has once again been buoyed by substantial private capital inflows in the 1990s. As in the 1970s, this development has been met with cautious optimism. This empirical study finds that although debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a “typical” debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with a business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows.