U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues
用一个动态三商品理性预期储存模型，比较1996年联邦农业改进与改革法案与自由市场政策及此前政策的影响，发现该法案并未显著增加长期价格或收入波动，1995-2000年的波动源于市场基本面。
Abstract A dynamic three‐commodity rational‐expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free‐market policy, and with pre‐FAIR policies. Results suggest that FAIR did not lead to significant increases in long‐run price volatility or revenue volatility. The main impact of pre‐FAIR, relative to the free‐market regime, was to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes. Results also indicate that U.S. grain market volatility in 1995–2000 was due to fundamental market forces and not to FAIR.