The Forward Exchange Market, Speculation, and Exchange Market Intervention
研究投机对经济稳定的影响，发现投机能稳定国内收入但放大国外冲击；同时分析远期市场在稳定政策中的作用，指出结合远期和即期汇率的干预规则优于仅针对即期汇率的政策。
This paper examines two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against stochastic disturbances. Increased speculation (i) stabilizes domestic income against disturbances in the domestic bond market and forward exchange market; (ii) exacerbates the effect of foreign disturbances; and (iii) may dampen or augment the effect of money market and output supply disturbances. The second issue is the role of the forward market in stabilization policy. Forward market intervention does not provide monetary authorities additional leverage in stabilizing income beyond unsterilized spot market intervention. Intervention rules based on reactions to both the forward and the spot exchange rates, however, can outperform intervention policies responding to the spot rate alone, regardless of the market in which intervention occurs.