Marketplace Competition in the Personal Computer Industry*
研究了个人电脑市场中新产品开发决策如何受竞争强度影响，通过随机计数模型预测五年后的竞争格局。
ABSTRACT A decision regarding development and introduction of a potential new product depends, in part, on the intensity of compeitition anticipated in the marketplace. In the case of a technology‐based product such as a personal computer (PC), the number of competing products may be very dynamic and consequently uncertain. We address this problem by modeling growth in the number of new PCs as a stochastic counting process, incorporating product entries and exits. We demonstrate how to use the resulting model to forecast competition five years in advance.