Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager
研究如何将简单数据库模型与管理直觉结合，发现两者组合在五种商业预测中均优于单独使用，平均R²提高0.09（16%），并探讨等权重启发法的有效性。
We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R 2 increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.