Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate
研究大幅贬值后实际汇率大幅下降的主要原因,发现非贸易品和服务的价格调整缓慢是关键。基于五个国家的大幅贬值事件,重点分析阿根廷案例,使用多种数据验证结论的稳健性。
In this paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the prices of nontradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2002), Brazil (1999), Korea (1997), Mexico (1994), and Thailand (1997). We conduct a detailed analysis of the Argentinian case using disaggregated consumer price index data, data from our own survey of prices in Buenos Aires, and scanner data from supermarkets. We assess the robustness of our findings by studying large real exchange rate appreciations, medium devaluations, and small exchange rate movements.