Autarky and the Rise and Fall of Piracy in Ming China
研究了1550-1567年间明朝严厉的海禁政策如何导致海盗袭击增加，发现更适合丝绸生产的沿海府县海盗袭击增长1.3倍，揭示了自给自足政策与西方冲突的关联。
We examine the impact of rigorous trade suppression during 1550–1567 on the sharp rise of piracy in this period of Ming China. By analyzing a uniquely constructed historical data set, we find that the enforcement of a “sea (trade) ban” policy led to a rise in pirate attacks that was 1.3 times greater among the coastal prefectures more suitable for silk manufactures—our proxy for greater trade potential. Our study illuminates the conflicts in which China subsequently engaged with the Western powers, conflicts that eventually resulted in the forced abandonment of its long upheld autarkic principle.