Investment Under Uncertainty: Testing the Options Model with Professional Traders
用实验经济学方法，以学生和专业交易员为对象，检验期权模型关于沉没成本和不确定性下投资决策的预测，结果与模型基本一致。
An important class of investment decisions is characterized by unrecoverable sunk costs, resolution of uncertainty through time, and the ability to invest in the future as an alternative to investing today. The options model provides guidance in such settings, including an investment decision rule called the "bad news principle": the downside investment state influences the investment decision whereas the upside investment state is ignored. This study takes a new approach to examining predictions of the options model by using the tools of experimental economics. Our evidence, which is drawn from student and professional trader subject pools, is broadly consonant with the options model.