Quantitative easing: a sceptical survey
怀疑性地审视量化宽松的证据,发现大规模资产购买能降低政府债券利率但效果可能短暂且微弱,在2008-2009年防止了产出和通胀的更大下滑,但现有文献方法单一且多来自央行,需要更广泛的证据基础。
Evaluation of quantitative easing (QE) is difficult as it is only used in response to severe and unusual economic difficulties. Despite this, we argue that two main conclusions can be drawn from a sceptical reading of the evidence. First, large-scale asset purchases reduce government bond rates, especially at the longer end of the yield curve. However, this effect may be temporary and is small if bond rates are already low, while initial waves of QE are more effective than subsequent programmes. Second, QE appears to have been effective in late 2008 and 2009, preventing even larger declines in output and inflation than were experienced. We argue that the literature is limited, relying on similar methodologies and largely originating in central banks. Exploration of alternative approaches to QE would be useful in widening an evidence base that is currently too narrow.