我们从十年的增长实证研究中学到了什么?对威廉·A·布洛克和史蒂文·N·杜尔劳夫《增长实证与现实》的评论

What have we learned from a decade of empirical research on growth? Comment on "Growth Empirics and Reality," by William A. Brock and Steven N. Durlauf

World Bank Economic Review · 2001
被引 16
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

评论布洛克和杜尔劳夫的文章,指出增长回归对实践者帮助有限,建议从模型检验转向决策理论方法,并讨论了学术与实践者的利益冲突、产出异质性及政策指导的局限性。

Abstract

World Bank economists are mostly practical people—people who try to answer the question, “What exactly should this particular country do right now?” But if they had hoped that the growth regression lessons summarized in William Brock and Steven Durlauf's article would enhance their practical advice giving, they might feel some dissatisfaction. How would they change their advice to, say, Brazil? But that is why this article is important conceptually. It goes to the heart of the matter by proposing a change in the empirical growth literature's fundamental methodology—from model testing to decision theoretic. The article's valiant but flawed attempt reveals the difficulties in making this shift, however. I'd like to make three points: There is a tension between the interests of academics and practitioners in growth regressions. Output response heterogeneity is a huge practical problem. And policy decisions can be guided only in broad outlines by growth regressions.

经济增长实证增长回归方法论政策指导