The Crisis of 1873: Perspectives from Multiple Asset Classes
分析1873年危机前各类资产（股票、期权、债券）的定价行为，发现投资者理性监控风险，期权市场在崩盘前已显示对价格下跌的担忧，且风险集中于高杠杆公司。
This article analyzes asset pricing behavior during the period leading up to the Crisis of 1873. Evidence is presented that equities, options, and bonds priced risks consistently, suggesting that investors were actively monitoring the risk of investing and were not caught up in an irrational, speculative mania. Implied probability density functions for stock returns suggest that option markets exhibited growing concern about substantial price declines prior to the crash. Concerns were concentrated on riskier, more leveraged firms. Deteriorating balance sheet fundamentals for the riskiest U.S. railroads set the stage for a market disruption in 1873 as information asymmetries worsened.