为战略规划目的选择德尔菲专家小组

The selection of delphi panels for strategic planning purposes

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL · 1984
被引 44
人大 AFT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

比较公司内部与跨公司德尔菲专家小组在商业社会政治环境预测中的表现,发现两者结果相似,因此推荐战略规划者使用更具优势的内部小组。

Abstract

Abstract Despite the popularity of the Delphi technique little scientific literature exists to help guide the strategic planner in its proper application. In an effort to fill part of that void a comparative test was conducted using both intracompany and intercompany Delphi panels to forecast future events in the socio‐political environment of business. The intent was to determine whether the two groups produced similar or different forecasts under virtually identical test conditions. Analysis of the data showed similarities in both the forecast estimates and the degree of consensus achieved across groups. Since strong similarities were demonstrated, the intracompany panel type is recommended to strategic planners based on its unique advantages.

战略规划德尔菲法预测方法管理科学