The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters
研究了德国媒体对消费者价格通胀的报道如何影响家庭和专业预测者的通胀预测分歧，发现家庭的分歧受报道内容和强度影响，而专业预测者则不受媒体影响。
This paper investigates the effects of media coverage about consumer price inflation on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depends on the heterogeneity of story content and on the reporting intensity, especially of news on rising inflation. Disagreement of professional forecasters does not depend on media coverage. With respect to the influence of macroeconomic variables, we provide evidence that disagreement of professional forecasters primarily depends on the inflation rate and on inflation volatility. The response of households to inflation is much less pronounced.