Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First
研究发现，无论是新兴还是发达经济体，二十世纪金融危机的前兆都是杠杆快速积累；国内信贷扩张和实际货币升值是最稳健的危机预测指标，而新兴经济体较高的外汇储备能显著降低危机概率。
A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973–2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis.