Contingency Severity and Individual Performance in a Probabilistic Game Setting
定义了偶然性严重性这一概念，并通过概率游戏实验发现，该指标与个体表现负相关，且受情境可预测性和反馈性质的影响。
Contingency Severity, a construct which describes the impact of environmental and system variables upon individuals, is operationally defined in this study. The measure of Contingency Severity employed was Raynolds' difference score, R, calculated between nonverbal Projective Differential and verbal Semantic Differential data. A probabilistic game was devised to permit relatively precise control over the predictability of a relevant environment. The principal game parameters-"predictability" and "eucity/noxity of feedback "-were distinct in three versions of the game. A repeated measures, balanced Latin Squares design was used to control for differences in game situations, order of play, and decision style. Nonparametric analyses supported the hypotheses that (1) Raynolds' measure of Contingency Severity, R, did vary inversely with performance; (2) performance was positively related to the game's objective degree of situation predictability; and (3) R did vary inversely with and could be explained by situation predictability and eucity/noxity of feedback.