On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity
这篇短文指出，在应用经济学研究中，用滞后值替换联立解释变量的常见做法并不能避免联立性偏误，估计仍不一致，假设检验无效。
Abstract A common practice in applied economics research consists of replacing a suspected simultaneously determined explanatory variable with its lagged value. This note demonstrates that this practice does not enable one to avoid simultaneity bias. The associated estimates are still inconsistent, and hypothesis testing is invalid. An alternative is to use lagged values of the endogenous variable in instrumental variable estimation. However, this is only an effective estimation strategy if the lagged values do not themselves belong in the respective estimating equation, and if they are sufficiently correlated with the simultaneously determined explanatory variable.