聚合概率评估的乘法公式

A Multiplicative Formula for Aggregating Probability Assessments

Management Science · 1982
被引 129
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

提出一种公理化方法,将多位专家对事件概率的评估聚合为群体概率评估,并推导出乘法公式。

Abstract

This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived.

概率聚合乘法公式公理化方法专家判断