Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts
提出一个衡量组合预测收益的指标，即误差方差降低的概率，并利用美国经济学家的预测数据，分析组合数量及预测方法多样性如何影响收益。
The expected error variance of a combined forecast is necessarily lower than that of an individual forecast, but in practice there may be considerable variation around these expected values. This paper introduces a measure of the benefit from combining, the probability of a reduction in error variance, which recognizes this problem. The measure is applied to data on the forecasts and forecasting methods of a panel of U.S. economists to determine how the benefits of combining vary with the number of forecasts combined, and with the diversity in theories and techniques among the component forecasts.