Global Warming Economics in the Long Run: A Conceptual Framework
指出气候经济模型通常只分析短期影响(如到2100年),但大气CO2浓度可能翻两番以上,因此提出了一个内生考虑长期气候变化的概念框架,并比较了两种减排策略(降低年排放率和限制总碳排放量)的含义,还讨论了不同的估值框架。
Economic models of climate change typically analyze its short-run effects, for example, up to the year 2100 or for a doubling of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>. This is a potentially serious shortcoming since under a business-as-usual scenario, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations could more than quadruple. We introduce a framework that endogenously accounts for long-run climate change and examine the implications of alternative mitigation strategies: one in which the rates of annual emissions are reduced, and one that places absolute limits on the total amount of carbon released. We discuss alternative valuation frameworks, drawing on the debate surrounding the <i>Stern Review.</i>