Interest Rates and Crowding-Out During Britain's Industrial Revolution
利用英国工业革命期间的利率和政府借款数据，检验战争支出是否挤出了私人投资，发现现有证据不支持挤出效应，并指出挤出模型在历史案例中的局限性。
Available evidence on interest rates and government borrowing during Britain's industrial revolution, while limited, does not support the idea that war spending crowded out private investment. This article demonstrates the importance of using data on net receipts from borrowing, rather than changes in government debt. Weaknesses of the crowding-out model concerning capital markets and investment, openness of the economy, and full employment are identified for the historical case. The case raises broader issues of whether conceptions of saving and investment based in neoclassical supply-constrained models are as appropriate as theories of capital accumulation.