BANKRUPTCY DISCRIMINATION WITH REAL VARIABLES
质疑统计模型中未剔除通胀的财务比率，用1982-1988年124家油气公司数据，发现使用剔除通胀的比率和外部因素（如油价、利率）能构建更优的破产预警模型，整体分类准确率约95%。
This paper reconsiders the accepted usage of nondeflated financial ratios in statistical models to differentiate between failed and nonfailed firms. Non‐deflated ratios are hypothesized to inadequately reflect inter‐temporal macroeconomic fluctuations that affect the ability of firm's to survive. Using a sample of 124 oil and gas companies between the period 1982–1988, the going concern assumption is evaluated with statistical logit models using either nondeflated or deflated financial ratios. Deflated company ratios are created by transforming data with price indices or by creating market value ratios. Empirical results suggest that a superior bankruptcy early warning model is developed for the oil and gas industry by creating real financial and reserve ratios and by introducing external factors, such as oil prices, interest rates and accounting method, as independent predictors. Overall classification accuracy is approximately 95 percent.