The Impacts of Business Cycles on Returns to Farmland Investments
研究了商业周期（如1970年代农业繁荣和1980年代农业衰退）对农田投资预期表现和估值的影响，发现债务、股票和土地市场的风险溢价显著影响农田的预期回报和价值，且预期回报有时偏离系统性风险要求。
Abstract Expected performance and valuation of investments in farmland are examined in relation to prevailing business cycle conditions over a period that includes both the 1970s farm boom and 1980s farm recession. Information on risk premia in debt, equity, and land markets are shown to significantly affect conditional expected returns to farmland and, consequently, farmland values. Further, conditional expected land returns diverge significantly in some years from returns conditionally required on the basis of systematic risk. Overall implications are that expected land returns are dependent not only on local sector conditions but also on time‐varying macroeconomic conditions related to business cycles.