Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
自2007年以来美国劳动力参与率从约66%降至约63%，本文用多种方法分析下降原因，发现大部分是结构性因素（如人口老龄化）所致，因此预计即使劳动力市场改善，参与率也不会大幅回升。
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in participation reflects cyclical weakness rather than structural factors, our overall assessment is that much of the decline is structural in nature. As a result, while we believe some of the participation rate’s current low level is indicative of labor market slack, we do not expect the rate to substantially increase from current levels as labor market conditions continue to improve.