Do Firms Underinvest in Long-Term Research? Evidence from Cancer Clinical Trials
研究了企业研发投资是否偏向短期项目，利用癌症临床试验数据发现长期研究投资不足，并分析了替代终点、补贴和专利设计等政策应对。
We investigate whether private research investments are distorted away from long-term projects. Our theoretical model highlights two potential sources of this distortion: short-termism and the fixed patent term. Our empirical context is cancer research, where clinical trials—and hence, project durations—are shorter for late-stage cancer treatments relative to early-stage treatments or cancer prevention. Using newly constructed data, we document several sources of evidence that together show private research investments are distorted away from long-term projects. The value of life-years at stake appears large. We analyze three potential policy responses: surrogate (non-mortality) clinical-trial endpoints, targeted R&D subsidies, and patent design.