Decoupling Direct Payments and the Dynamics of Decisions under Price Risk in Cattle Farms
通过多期数学规划模型，分析价格不确定性和风险厌恶下，直接支付与生产脱钩对法国两个地区肉牛养殖场决策的影响，发现脱钩政策使不同农户反应更趋同，养牛比例下降且生产技术更粗放。
The impact of decoupling direct payments from production on producers' decisions, taking account of price uncertainty and risk aversion, is analysed through a multi‐period mathematical programming model. This model is applied to beef cattle farms in two French regions: Limousin and Pays de la Loire. The technical coefficients are represented by an engineering production function estimated for both regions. The behavioural parameters have been obtained through a survey and model calibration. Policy changes have been modelled through different simulation scenarios relating to the decoupling of direct payments. Model results show that decoupling policies produce a more homogenous response from different types of farmers. The share of cattle activities on farms decreases and the production techniques become less intensive.