Bubble Formation and (In)Efficient Markets in Learning‐to‐Forecast and optimise Experiments
实验比较了三种任务(仅预测价格、仅买卖数量、两者兼做)下的资产市场价格动态,发现所有情形下价格均偏离基本面,且兼做任务时泡沫更大,价格可达基本面三倍。
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects: (1) submit a price forecast only; (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the fundamental price in all treatments, but to a larger degree in treatments (2) and (3). Mispricing is therefore a robust finding in markets with positive expectation feedback. Some very large, recurring bubbles arise, where the price is three times larger than the fundamental value, which were not seen in former experiments.