The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists
梳理19至20世纪初欧美生育率从高到低转变的文献，澄清人口学常见误解，并指出未来研究方向，对研究长期经济增长的经济学家有参考价值。
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.