A Semi-Markov Model for Primary Health Care Manpower Supply Prediction
构建了一个半马尔可夫模型，用于预测地理区域内医生、护士和医师助理在不同环境间的流动，从而预测初级卫生保健提供者的供给，并与未来需求对比，为卫生规划者提供决策工具。
In this paper we develop a semi-Markov formulation for modelling transitions of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants between different settings and locations within a geographic area. The model predicts the supply of primary care providers over a planning horizon. We then compare the model predictions with estimates of future demand and need for primary care for a community. Statistical tests for validation and sensitivity analysis of the model are also performed to establish the appropriateness of the semi-Markov approach. With the likelihood of an oversupply of physicians during this decade, the model offers a useful tool for health planners, administrators, legislators, and regulators, for objective decision making.