Output Costs, Currency Crises and Interest Rate Defence of a Peg
用一个优化模型分析央行通过提高短期利率来捍卫钉住汇率的权衡，发现利率过高会因产出收缩反而加速危机，最优防御策略是在危机前后都维持高利率。
Central banks typically raise short-term interest rates to defend currency pegs. Higher interest rates, however, often lead to a credit crunch and an output contraction. We model this trade-off in an optimising, first-generation model in which the crisis may be delayed but is ultimately inevitable. We show that higher interest rates may delay the crisis, but raising interest rates beyond a certain point may actually bring forward the crisis due to the large negative output effect. The optimal interest rate defence involves setting high interest rates (relative to the no defence case) both before and at the moment of the crisis. Copyright 2007 The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2007.