Monetary policy and the stability of macroeconomic relationships
通过模拟固定与浮动汇率制度下的多国经济模型，评估了不同国际货币制度对菲利普斯曲线、消费函数等宏观经济关系参数的影响，发现制度转变虽引起明显变化但幅度不大，为卢卡斯批判提供了定量检验。
Estimates of the effect of different international monetary regimes on the parameters of the Phillips curve, the Keynesian consumption function, and other reduced-form macroeconomic relationships are given. The estimates provide a quantitative assessment of the importance of the Lucas critique for such regime shifts. The estimates are calculated by stochastically simulating an estimated multicountry economic model with rational expectations under a fixed exchange rate regime and a flexible exchange rate regime. In both regimes interest rates are the primary instrument of monetary policy. Noticeable shifts occur in most of the macroeconomic relationships, especially in the consumption function and the Phillips curve, and these shifts have simple economic interpretations based on the changes in the variance and the serial correlation of income and prices in the two regimes. However, in most cases the shifts are not large quantitatively. At least, as implemented here, this type of regime shift does not seem to generate much instability in the conventional macroeconomic relationships. Several possible reasons for this finding are discussed in the paper.