Measuring Inflation Expectations
回顾了纽约联储通过调查改进家庭通胀预期测量的研究，探讨问题措辞、信息更新及激励实验，对央行和研究者有参考价值。
To conduct monetary policy, central banks around the world increasingly rely on measures of public inflation expectations. In this article, we review findings from an ongoing initiative at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York aimed at improving the measurement and our understanding of household inflation expectations through surveys. We discuss the importance of question wording and the usefulness of new questions to elicit an individual’s distribution of inflation beliefs. We present evidence suggesting that consumers update their inflation expectations in response to new information and that information dissemination may lead to more informed and reliable reporting of inflation expectations. Finally, we report on a financially incentivized experiment suggesting that expectations surveys are informative and that respondents generally act on their stated beliefs in a way consistent with expected utility theory.