The Resistible Rise of Bayesian Thinking in Management
通过研究决策分析这一基于贝叶斯主义的学科如何被接受，揭示了政治和物质工具在推广贝叶斯思维中的作用，对关注贝叶斯方法在管理领域应用的学者有参考价值。
This paper draws from a case study of decision analysis—a discipline rooted in Bayesianism aimed at supporting managerial decision making—to inform the current discussion on the adoption of Bayesian modes of thinking in management research and practice. Relying on concepts from the science, technology, and society field of study and actor-network theory, we approach the production of scientific knowledge as a cultural, practical, and material affair. Specifically, we analyze the activities deployed by decision analysts to overcome the challenges of making a discipline built on Bayes’ legacy scientifically acceptable, managerially relevant, and long lasting. As a novel contribution to the discussion on the “Bayesian revolution,” our study goes beyond institutional accounts of the legitimation of Bayesianism to highlight the role of politics and material artifacts in past and current attempts at importing Bayesianism. Our study also shows the importance of historical continuity in the promotion of Bayesian methods in management.