Competitive Pricing and Storage under Uncertainty with an Application to the U.S. Soybean Market
研究竞争性储存如何影响美国大豆市场的价格、消费和生产波动，发现储存能大幅降低价格和消费的年度波动，但会增大生产波动，并评估政府补贴储存对减少价格波动的效果。
Abstract Relative to a no‐storage regime, competitive storage of soybeans greatly reduces the variance of both annual prices and annual consumption. Variance of production is increased. Expected values of price, consumption, and production are not affected. The government could reduce price variance by about 70 percent of its competitive level through subsidizing storage activity. The research procedure is based on a model of competitive storage under conditions of uncertainty and assuming rational expectations. Farm‐level demand and supply functions are estimated. Simulation is used to generate large random samples of values for soybean prices, consumption, production, and year‐end stocks.