Exports and growth: A flawed framework
指出，大量实证研究通过双变量相关或生产函数回归声称出口促进增长，但这些检验同样支持GDP所有主要成分的“促进”，因此对出口促进与进口替代之争毫无意义。
A strategy of export promotion has evolved into the new conventional wisdom. The alleged superiority of this strategy draws on an extensive list of empirical studies, an important strand of which consists of tests in cross‐country format that use bivariate correlations and/or production function‐type regressions to demonstrate a strong positive relationship between exports and GDP growth. By showing that these same tests support the ‘promotion’ of all major components of GDP, this note argues that these tests have no bearing at all on the export‐promotion/import‐substitution controversy.