Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets
实验发现，在实验室金融市场中，人们因一厢情愿而加大赌注的行为会误导他人，使其误以为这些赌徒掌握了有利信息，从而导致一厢情愿思维在市场互动中扩散而非减弱。
Prior research provides only weak and controversial evidence that people overestimate the likelihood of desirable events (wishful thinking), but strong evidence that people bet more heavily on those events (wishful betting). Two experiments show that wishful betting contaminates beliefs in laboratory financial markets because wishful betters appear to possess more favorable information than they actually do. As a consequence, market interaction exacerbates rather than mitigates wishful thinking. This phenomenon, “contagion of wishful thinking,” could be problematic in many settings where people infer others' beliefs from their behavior.