ON THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES
估计了一个包含随机生产率趋势和利率冲击的模型，发现金融摩擦放大了常规生产率冲击的作用，而趋势冲击影响较小，对理解新兴经济体波动机制有参考价值。
Recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies has advocated introducing a stochastic productivity trend or allowing for interest rate shocks and financial frictions. We estimate a model that encompasses these two approaches, shedding light on their relative merits and on how financial frictions affect the transmission of shocks. The model accounts for aggregate fluctuations by assigning a dominant role to financial frictions in amplifying conventional (temporary) productivity shocks, whereas trend shocks play a minor role. A link between spreads and expected future productivity emerges as essential for a reasonable approximation to the data.