Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account in Small Island Developing States
研究了外部冲击（贸易条件波动）和内部冲击（实际产出）如何影响小岛屿发展中国家的经常账户，发现贸易条件冲击会引发类似J曲线的反应，而产出冲击则有正面影响。
Abstract The paper investigates the dynamic relationship between external and internal shocks and the current account in selected small islands developing states. External shocks, defined as terms of trade fluctuations, explain a significant proportion of the variation in the current account balances. The external shocks have a temporary negative impact on the current account balances with a subsequent improvement, generating a J-curve type reaction. In contrast, real output shocks have a positive and significant effect on the current account.