Welfare Reform When Recipients Are Forward-Looking
用离散选择动态规划模型分析1996年美国福利改革中时间限制和工作要求对就业、婚姻和福利参与的影响，发现五年终身时间限制使福利使用减少60%，且很大程度源于领取者的前瞻性行为。
Abstract In 1996 the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program was replaced with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. This paper considers the effects of two specific components of TANF, time limits and work requirements, on employment, marriage, and welfare participation. I use a discrete-choice dynamic programming model and obtain parameter estimates using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Policy simulations show that a five-year lifetime time limit results in a 60 percent reduction in welfare use and that a substantial part of this reduction occurs because recipients are forward-looking.