Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance
构建后见之明偏差的理论模型，并通过两个实验（学生和投资银行家）证明该偏差会降低波动率估计和投资绩效，对理解投资者行为有参考价值。
Once they have observed information, hindsight-biased agents fail to remember how ignorant they were initially; “they knew it all along.” We formulate a theoretical model of this bias, providing a foundation for empirical measures and implying that hindsight-biased agents learning about volatility will underestimate it. In an experiment involving 66 students from Mannheim University, we find that hindsight bias reduces volatility estimates. In another experiment, involving 85 investment bankers in London and Frankfurt, we find that more biased agents have lower performance. These findings are robust to differences in location, information, overconfidence, and experience.