Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
利用各国历史温度波动，发现高温显著降低贫困国家的经济增长率，并减少农业和工业产出、破坏政治稳定，对气候与发展关系的争论有重要启示。
This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries.