Assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition
指出预测者调查中面板组成变化的问题，建议分析单个预测者的时间序列以避免因组成变化导致的错误推断，并推荐使用固定组成的子面板进行聚合分析。
Abstract This paper calls attention to the problem of changing panel composition in surveys of forecasters and documents the problem in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. To study the temporal variation of forecasts, we recommend analysis of the time series of predictions made by individual forecasters. This makes transparent the heterogeneity of the panel and avoids improper inferences due to changing panel composition. In the absence of knowledge of the process determining panel composition, we warn against the traditional practice of aggregate time series analysis, which conflates changes in the expectations of individual forecasters with changes in the composition of the panel. Should analysis of aggregated predictions be thought desirable as a simplifying device, we recommend analyses of sub‐panels of fixed composition. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.