Learning and Macroeconomics
介绍经济主体通过实时估计和更新预测模型来形成预期的计量经济学学习方法，该方法为理性预期提供稳定性检验，并在多重均衡模型中提供选择标准，同时回顾了学习在货币财政政策设计、经济周期、资产价格等领域的应用。
Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in real time. The learning approach provides a stability test for rational expectations and a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria. In addition, learning provides new dynamics if older data are discounted, if models are misspecified, or if agents choose between competing models. This paper describes the expectational stability (E-stability) principle and the stochastic approximation tools used to assess equilibria under learning. Applications of learning to a number of areas are reviewed, including the design of monetary and fiscal policy, business cycles, self-fulfilling prophecies, hyperinflation, liquidity traps, and asset prices.