The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Time Series Analysis
使用向量自回归模型研究外国援助对小型发展中国家的短期宏观经济影响，发现援助依赖型国家与非援助依赖型国家在援助吸收和支出上存在显著差异。
Abstract This paper investigates the short-run macroeconomic impact of aid in small developing countries (SDCs) by using a vector auto regression (VAR) model to study the impact of aid on net import (absorption) and domestic demand (spending). We focus on average country effects within two country sub-groups, and find substantial differences between ‘aid-dependent’ SDCs and other SDCs that are more dependent on natural resources, tourism or financial services. In aid-dependent SDCs, aid absorption more or less equals spending, although only half of the aid flow is absorbed and spent. In the non-aid-dependent group, aid does not seem to be absorbed or spent in any systematic fashion.