Supply Shocks and Price Adjustment in the World Oil Market
研究短期石油供给冲击如何影响世界油价，特别关注现货价与合同价并存的双重价格结构，发现即使暂时冲击也会对长期价格产生持续影响。
Understanding the impacts of transitory oil supply shocks on world oil prices is crucial to the evaluation of the economic impacts of shocks and the design of policy responses to address those impacts. This paper integrates short-run and long-run approaches to oil price determination, with particular emphasis on the "two-price" structure of the world oil market—with coexisting short-term "spot" prices and long-term "contract" prices. Even transitory shocks are shown to exhibit persistence effects on long-term prices. Some implications for econometric models of the relationship between spot and contract prices are discussed.