The Effects of the Dairy Termination Program on Live Cattle and Wholesale Beef Prices
用分布滞后模型估算1986-87年乳制品终止计划对牛肉价格的影响，发现该计划导致价格下降，但美国农业部的红肉采购使降幅减半；若更均匀安排屠宰，价格降幅可减少34%。
Abstract Distributed lags were used to estimate the beef price effects of the 1986‐87 Dairy Termination Program. The model estimated the direct effects of dairy slaughter and indirect effects of fed and nonfed supply response on the feeder, slaughter, and carcass markets. The results showed that, without offsetting U.S. Department of Agriculture red meat purchases, price reductions would have ranged from about $@@‐@@1.60 to $@@‐@@4.00 per hundredweight but were reduced by one‐half with the red meat purchases. If the Department of Agriculture had scheduled dairy slaughter more evenly over eighteen months, price reductions would have been 34% less.