The Stability of the Interwar Gold Exchange Standard: Did Politics Matter?
使用1928-1936年24个国家的面板数据，通过离散时间持续期模型分析经济和政治指标如何影响一国在金本位制上的存续时间，发现高人均收入、国际债权国地位和先前恶性通胀增加存续概率，而民主政体、高失业率、英镑集团成员身份、高通胀和银行危机则缩短存续时间。
Economic historians have devoted enormous attention to the collapse of the interwar gold standard. This article proposes a discrete time duration model (using a panel data set of 24 countries for 1928–1936) to analyze how economic and political indicators affected a country's term on the gold standard. High per capita income, international creditor status, and prior hyperinflation increased the probability of continuation. In contrast, democratic regimes left early. Unemployment, sterling group membership, higher inflation, and the experience of banking crises reduced the time a country remained on the gold standard. This study also predicts sample countries' survival probabilities.