The Consumption Response to Predictable Changes in Discretionary Income: Evidence from the Repayment of Vehicle Loans
利用汽车贷款还清后自主收入增加这一可预测变化，基于消费者支出调查数据，发现贷款偿还带来的10%收入增加导致非耐用品消费增长2%至3%，并指出借贷约束可能是原因。
Although the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis is the primary framework for understanding household consumption and savings decisions, only a few studies have used clearly identifiable income changes to test the basic predictions of the model. The estimates produced using this empirical strategy have yet to lead to a consensus of beliefs since the results have both favored and rejected the model. This paper contributes to this literature by examining the consumption reaction to predictable increases in discretionary income following the final payment of a vehicle loan. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the results show that a 10% increase in discretionary income due to a loan repayment leads to a 2% to 3% increase in nondurable consumption. Additional analysis suggests that these findings may be explained by the presence of borrowing constraints. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.