Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race*
研究六个工业化国家的经济周期同步性，发现英语国家俱乐部正在形成，而欧元区国家间的同步性较弱，这对英国加入欧元区构成担忧。
Abstract This paper examines the relative cyclical affiliation in six industrialized economies. While the broad conclusions are consistent with the existing literature, the proposed empirical framework is not based on correlations and permits the analysis of relative groupwise synchronization under very few assumptions. The results allow us to conclude that an English‐speaking club (Canada, UK, USA) is emerging in the last decades, whereas explicit and formal commitments seem to have had a relatively weaker power in determining Euro‐zone (France, Germany, Italy) business cycle comovements. Altogether, the business cycle race is a cause for concern as regards the entry of the UK into the Euro‐zone.