How Much Did Oil Market Developments Contribute to the 2009 Recession in Germany?
使用结构性向量自回归模型分析石油市场对德国经济的影响，发现2007/2008年油价上涨引发的世界需求冲击导致2009年德国GDP下降0.8%，显著加剧了当年的经济衰退。
Abstract In this paper, we use a structural vector autoregressive model to study the effects of oil market developments on the German economy. We find that higher oil prices are always associated with a decline in private consumption expenditures, but the response of gross domestic product (GDP) crucially depends on the underlying shock. While a disruption in oil supply provokes a recession, positive world demand shocks prompt a temporary increase in exports and investment, which initially outweigh the cutback on consumption. In a counterfactual analysis, we show that the world demand shocks that led to the 2007/2008 oil price rise triggered a delayed 0.8 percent decrease in German GDP in 2009, and therefore notably contributed to the recession of that year.