A Minsky Crisis
构建模型阐释明斯基的金融危机理论,假设财富水平由宏观决定且企业资产价值随信心变化,公众在货币与企业负债间高度替代,预期利润下降引发财富收缩、利率上升,最终导致债务通缩危机。
A model is developed to illustrate Hyman Minsky's financial crisis theories. A key assumption is that the level of wealth in the economy is determined mac-roeconomically, with the value of firms' assets responding to the state of confidence as reflected by discounted quasi rents on capital. The second assumption is that there is high substitutability between liabilities of firms and money in the public's portfolio. A downward shift in anticipated profits leads wealth to contract and the public to shift portfolio preferences toward money. Interest rates rise, leading to further dampening of expected profits, and a debt-deflation crisis can occur.